While Fayette and Jefferson have become less relevant, many of their immediate surrounding suburban counties like Madison and Bullitt – high-growth counties where many voters have converted to the GOP – are becoming more important. So while a county like Jefferson has grown its GOP ranks from 182,000 in 2015 to 198,000 in 2023, its 2023 total is less important to office-seekers than the 2015 number because the party has grown at a much faster rate elsewhere in the state.

Trailing them are the Northern Kentucky counties of Kenton and Boone at 4.2% and 3.89%, followed by the I-65 counties of Warren and Hardin at 2.57% and 2.45% of the GOP electorate.Ī county’s share of the GOP electorate is calculated by dividing their total number of Republicans registered to vote by the total number in the state.

However, the state’s two largest counties still hold the greatest share of registered GOP voters at 12.49% and 5.25%, respectively. The dynamic is clearly trending away from Jefferson and Fayette counties and towards most of the state’s other 118 counties. These trends could change the political calculus for governor candidates since the last competitive GOP gubernatorial primary – in 2015 when former governor Matt Bevin beat now-U.S. Urban counties like Fayette and Jefferson are losing influence among the GOP electorate, and many suburban counties and rural counties in the state’s East and West are picking up the slack. There’s a new set of highly important counties - thanks to high voter conversion or population growth - to watch on Election Night. But now with growth in GOP registration across the state, that’s changing. The path to the GOP nomination for statewide elected office has often run through Jefferson County, Fayette County and South-Central Kentucky.

What the Heart Needs by Kelli McCracken